Christmas 2025: Amazon vs. Temu, the showdown that could determine the future of e-commerce

Three years ago, Temu was nothing more than a new app arriving from China. Today, it is a key player in the European landscape. The figures are staggering: more than 115.7 million monthly users in the EU in the first half of 2025, a 12.5% increase in just six months.

In 2024, the platform generated 70.8 billion dollars in global gross merchandise volume, including 10 to 12 billion in Europe. For 2025, analysts are forecasting more than 15 billion dollars on the continent, with the potential to surpass the 20-billion mark in 2026.

The most striking part? In the third quarter of 2025, Europe is believed to have overtaken North America in Temu’s revenue contribution. A major strategic shift for a company launched in 2022.

Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain are all showing double-digit growth. In Poland in particular, where Amazon has historically struggled to gain a foothold, Temu is estimated to be capturing between 30% and 40% of the market according to some local estimates.

In the face of this offensive, Amazon retains a dominant position, but one that is no longer as comfortable as before. With around 1.2 billion monthly visits in Europe, the American giant remains the undisputed leader. Two-thirds of online shoppers in Germany use the platform, more than half of French shoppers, and nearly 70% of Italians.

This dominance is built on a proven trio: fast delivery, reliable service and a frictionless returns policy. For Christmas, Amazon is deploying its usual machinery with the Prime Big Deal Days in October, Black Friday Week, followed by the race to guaranteed deliveries up to 24 December. Sellers know the drill: FBA stock in warehouses before early November, tight deadlines, streamlined logistics.

But cracks are beginning to show. In early December 2025, Amazon announced significant commission cuts for European sellers, particularly in low-cost fashion and accessories. Fees on clothing priced up to 15 euros, for example, are dropping from 7% to 5%. A rare move from Amazon, which openly acknowledges the pressure exerted by Temu and Shein.

For a long time, Temu’s Achilles heel was clear: endless delivery times, complicated returns, shipments coming from China. But the situation is changing.

The platform is investing heavily in European warehouses with a clear objective: to have 80% of orders shipped from within the EU. This gradual shift to a “local-to-local” model shortens delivery times, simplifies returns and avoids customs friction.

Temu still does not match the Prime promise of widespread 24–48 hour delivery. But for leisure, non-urgent purchases, the difference is becoming acceptable. Especially when the price gap remains so dramatic.

As for Amazon, its logistical advantage remains real but is no longer enough on its own to justify an average basket three to four times higher in some categories.

The real question is not whether Temu will replace Amazon in the hearts of Europeans. It is more nuanced. Temu is not directly eating into Amazon’s market share in its strongholds. Instead, it is slipping into Amazon’s blind spots.

In Eastern Europe, where Amazon has never truly managed to establish itself. In ultra-budget segments, where even Amazon struggles to compete. And in impulse-buy categories — gadgets, home décor, small accessories — where value for money matters less than price alone.

Temu’s growth is particularly strong in Poland, where Amazon accounts for less than 10% of the market. The same pattern appears in Spain and France in fashion and accessories categories.

The result: Temu is not attacking Amazon head-on, but it is dragging the entire market downwards. It is forcing Amazon to rethink its margins, reconsider its economic model, and accept a price war it never wanted to fight.

This Christmas 2025 above all reveals a psychological divide in consumers’ minds:

• The Amazon reflex is about safety. For important gifts — electronics, children’s toys, household appliances, branded products — the platform retains a decisive psychological advantage. You know what you’re buying, you know when it will arrive, you know how to return it.
• The Temu addiction is about instant savings boosted by dopamine. The app leans heavily on gamification mechanics: wheels, coupons, referrals, countdowns, aggressive notifications. In a context where inflation weighs on budgets, the promise of “everything for less” resonates strongly, especially with younger consumers.

The most likely scenario within the same household? A dual basket: “critical” gifts on Amazon or established retailers, and “secondary” gifts and gadgets on Temu.

This duel is not only playing out inside the apps. Brussels is watching — and starting to take action.

Temu, like Shein, has crossed the threshold of 45 million monthly users in the EU. This status of “Very Large Online Platform” under the Digital Services Act comes with reinforced obligations: content moderation, algorithmic transparency, seller traceability, and action against dangerous products.

The platform remains associated with compliance issues — non-compliant toys, textiles with questionable composition, uncertified electronics. If this Christmas results in a wave of complaints or a product scandal, regulation could accelerate very rapidly.

Here, Amazon has a relative advantage: an infrastructure already adapted to European requirements, and long-standing experience working with authorities on taxation, product safety and recalls.

No one will emerge as the outright winner of this Christmas 2025. What is at stake is the emergence of an unstable balance.

Amazon still sets the standards of trust and logistics in Europe. Its promise remains clear: speed, reliability, after-sales service.

Temu is gradually redefining price expectations, especially for non-essential and impulse purchases. It is normalising the idea that you can pay three times less — at the cost of sacrificing service.

The real question for the coming years: will European consumers come to see Temu-level prices as “normal” while still demanding Amazon-level service? Or will we accept a segmented market where “Prime and reliable” coexists with “cheap and fun”, each with its own trade-offs?

This Christmas will crown neither winner nor loser. But it is quietly reshaping the mental map of tens of millions of European shoppers. And it may well be this invisible shift that carries the most weight in the years to come.